Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary election has become a turning point for the small republic, which has long been caught between the gravitational pulls of Moscow and Brussels. With the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) securing a majority, the result consolidates President Maia Sandu’s strategy of binding Moldova’s political identity to the European Union. For Brussels, it provides momentum in an enlargement process that has been battered by scepticism within the bloc; for Moscow, it marks another strategic setback along its western flank.
The choice echoes the African proverb that “a man who chases two rabbits catches none.” Moldova’s citizens, weary of perpetual balancing acts, appear to have chosen one path even as uncertainties multiply about whether Europe itself is ready to deliver.
A Mandate for Europe, A Rebuke to Moscow
According to near-final results, PAS secured 55 of the 101 parliamentary seats, eclipsing the Patriotic Bloc led by Igor Dodon, which won 26. The smaller groupings, the Alternative Party (8 seats), Our Party (6), and Democracy at Home (6), make up the rest. Turnout stood at approximately 52 per cent, with overseas Moldovans again playing a decisive role.
The outcome builds on the October 2024 constitutional referendum, which hardwired EU accession as a national goal, making reversal politically and legally complex. EU leaders were swift to hail the result: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it “a vote for Europe’s future.” At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron described Moldova as “a frontline democracy.”
Yet Moscow’s response was pointed. Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “disenfranchisement” of Moldovan citizens in Russia, where only two polling stations were open despite hundreds of thousands of expatriates. Officials alleged the restrictions were deliberate, contrasting them with the extensive diaspora infrastructure in Western Europe. The Kremlin also amplified claims of vote-buying and Western interference, while independent monitors noted widespread disinformation campaigns.
For voters, the election was also about immediate concerns. Energy insecurity triggered by Gazprom supply cuts in 2022 and exacerbated by strikes on Ukraine’s grid forced Moldova to pivot toward Romanian and EU energy markets. This crisis, recalled by many households as winters without guaranteed heat, gave Brussels leverage that Moscow could not match.
Reform Promises and Democratic Questions
PAS’s majority opens the way for reforms in justice, anti-corruption, and public administration areas, tied to the EU’s €1.9 billion Reform and Growth Facility for 2025–2027, which includes €385 million in grants and €1.5 billion in concessional loans. Disbursements will be conditional on meeting reform milestones, particularly in energy market liberalisation and judicial independence.
Domestically, the win raises questions about the nature of political pluralism. Opposition parties argue that the combination of constitutional amendments, diaspora voting patterns, and heavy EU backing creates a lopsided playing field. Observers from the OSCE/ODIHR noted that the election was competitive and well-administered, but flagged “significant concerns” regarding media concentration, cyberattacks, and opaque financing.
For Brussels, Moldova is both a test case and a headache. Enlargement fatigue runs deep in parts of the EU, with Hungary and Slovakia raising objections and warning against “political haste.” The unanimity rule in accession decisions gives each member a veto, a structural challenge that undercuts Europe’s democratic image. Critics in Chişinău and abroad question whether the EU, while urging reforms in others, has the political cohesion to deliver on its own commitments.
In this sense, Moldova’s election not only tested Moscow’s resilience but also forced Brussels to confront its own contradictions. A clean majority for a pro-EU party provides symbolic strength, but failure to move the accession process tangibly forward could fuel disillusionment at home.
Regional Fault Lines and Diaspora Deciders
The election has also sharpened Moldova’s internal divides. In Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking autonomous region, turnout skewed toward pro-Russian parties, reflecting both cultural affinities and reliance on Russian-language media. In Transnistria, the Moscow-backed breakaway enclave along the Dniester River, voting did not occur. Still, the region’s economic dependence on energy subsidies from Chişinău and Brussels remains a critical factor.
The diaspora remains Moldova’s hidden electorate. Nearly 301 overseas polling stations across 45 countries were operational, and for the first time, Moldovans in 10 countries cast ballots by mail in a parliamentary contest. In Italy, Germany, and the UK, long queues at consulates reflected enthusiasm for the EU path. By contrast, the limited facilities in Russia became a diplomatic flashpoint, with Moscow denouncing what it called “structural suppression” of its Moldovan community’s vote. <infographic: Diaspora infrastructure>
These divergences underscore Moldova’s fragile consensus. While Chişinău’s political establishment leans towards the West, pockets of the population remain tied to Moscow through energy prices, remittances, or media diets. PAS now carries the responsibility of translating external funds and political goodwill into visible improvements for citizens, lest the pendulum swing back.
Looking Ahead Without Certainty
For Moldova, the election’s significance lies less in the vote totals than in the political path they enshrine. The country’s pro-EU stance has never been stronger; yet, the obstacles, ranging from Russian counter-pressure to EU institutional gridlock, remain formidable.
As one Moldovan analyst observed, “Europe isn’t a flag in Chişinău. It’s whether the lights stay on in winter, whether courts decide fairly, and whether young people abroad believe it is worth returning.”
For Europe, the stakes extend beyond Moldova. The credibility of EU enlargement as a strategic project, the resilience of democratic institutions under external pressure, and the capacity to deliver tangible benefits will all be tested in the years ahead.
Moldova may be small, but in the geopolitics of Europe’s frontier, small states often carry lessons writ large.
